Troy, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS64 KBMX 180458
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1058 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025

No major update was needed to the afternoon forecast package. I
did slightly adjust and massage the PoPs given current coverage,
but I still stayed in the lane provided from this afternoon.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025

A "heat wave" is currently ongoing across Central Alabama this
afternoon. Well, it will most certainly be considered a heat wave
by the time we get to early next week based on what`s currently in
the forecast. Surface high pressure is currently centered off to
our east, producing a southerly surface flow and warm air
advection. An upper level shortwave currently over western
Oklahoma will quickly eject eastward overnight tonight, with a
surface low moving into the ArkLaTex. As a warm front lifts to the
northeast after midnight, plenty of lift along with moisture
advection from the southwest will develop widespread showers over
much of the area, with a rumble of thunder or two not out of the
question across the U.S. 80 and I-85 corridor. As the surface low
progresses eastward into southern Mississippi through Saturday
afternoon, a dry slot is expected to move into western Alabama
which will decrease rain chances. Sunshine may also make an
appearance, which would cause temperatures to warm nicely into the
60s, and we may actually hit 70 degrees in Demopolis. The highly
advertised arctic front will begin to enter our northwest counties
by 6pm Saturday with a rapid cool down expected during the
evening hours.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Medium to high (50-90%) chances for wind chill values below 15
degrees during the overnight periods Sunday night through Wednesday
morning.

- Low to medium (20-40%) chances for snow accumulations at or above
0.25" Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The main changes to the extended forecast to start off with are
to add some wrap around sprinkles/flurries for late Sat night/Sun
morning before sunrise and before the moisture clears out and
northwest winds usher in plummeting temperatures behind the
front. Latest guidance indicates overall temperatures beyond Sun
are similar to the previous run with a cold air advisory (wind
chills of <=10 NRN counties/<=15 SRN counties) possible as early
as Sat night for some and for all for Sun night into Mon. Extreme
cold warnings (<=0 NRN counties/ <=5 SRN counties) may even be
necessary. This extreme frigid cold snap lasts through mid week,
regardless of any wintry precipitation we get.

As for the likelihood of snow for Tue/Tue night, while guidance
is not showing very large amounts of snow in comparison to our
last event on Jan 10th, our airmass will be much much colder. The
ground will be very cold in advance of any precip on Tue. It will
not take nearly as much precipitation to be impactful for travel.
As of now (5 days out), we are seeing roughly 1-2 inches of snow
possible along the I-85 corridor and SEWD (yes SEWD from there),
with lighter amounts as you go toward the I20 corridor. Small
changes in precip placement in guidance between now and Tue could
cause big changes in amounts. The temperatures when precip falls
are just as important if not more than the amounts. This is not
even mentioning model differences in placements and amounts ATTM.
This forecast WILL change as we get closer and refine the
placement of this system. Now is the time to prepare for the very
cold and long duration temperatures that will occur next week.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025

MVFR CIGs and -RA are continuing to expand across the region, with
most locations falling into IFR category by 18/12z. The rain
should being to taper off around this time as well, with skies
slowly mixing out back to MVFR category. However, IFR CIGs will
return to most terminal by 19/01z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture values increase tonight ahead of a system forecast to
bring widespread soaking rains tonight into Saturday. Behind this
system, much colder air looms. Frigid air moves into Central
Alabama behind this weekend`s front for next week. Snow is
possible for portions of the area by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  61  31  38 / 100  60  30   0
Anniston    46  62  35  41 /  90  60  30   0
Birmingham  47  62  32  38 / 100  60  20   0
Tuscaloosa  48  64  32  39 / 100  50  10   0
Calera      49  64  35  41 / 100  60  20   0
Auburn      45  64  39  47 /  90  70  40   0
Montgomery  49  69  38  47 /  90  60  30   0
Troy        46  69  40  49 /  90  70  40   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...44